Last month, I had my first solo attempt at entertaining when I hosted a family of six from my church for a spaghetti dinner. I had a special recipe for the sauce from a long-time friend and promised not to share his family secret. About two hours before they arrived, I ran through a mental checklist to make sure I had everything I needed. I opened the refrigerator to grab the round shaker of grated cheese you and I always sprinkle on top.
Not there.
Like a brick, it hit me. I remembered having it in my hands at the store. I also knew exactly why it was missing. I’d apparently set it down while searching for two spices days earlier. So, back to the store I went for that shaker of cheese.
While I was there, I remembered I needed Italian bread. Then I remembered trash bags. And a jug of Swiffer floor cleaner. And paper towels. My quick trip to replace a $5 shaker of cheese turned into a $58 spree, nearly ten times the plan. It reminded me that I need to make a list — just like producers do when they head to the equipment dealer for parts.
The November 17 USDA Grain Inspections for Export report showed the U.S. had exported 623 million bushels of corn since the marketing year began on Sept. 1. A year ago at this time, exports totaled 360 million bushels — already considered strong. Simply put, U.S. corn is leaving the country at a gangbuster pace. Exports are running 263 million bushels ahead of last year, a 73% increase. No surprise, then, that with the Nov. 14 WASDE report, USDA raised its export projection by 100 million bushels to 3.075 billion. For comparison, the U.S. exported 2.83 billion bushels in the 2024–25 marketing year.
Grain exports were a mixed bag on report day. Corn exports exceeded the high end of expectations, soybeans landed near the low end, and wheat came in dismally below it.
After seeing the “good” in corn, soybeans unfortunately represent both the “bad” and the “ugly.” That same inspection report showed soybean exports at 371 million bushels so far this marketing year, compared with 646 million at this time last year. That’s a drop of 275 million bushels, or 42%. Note the near-perfect tradeoff: corn exports are up 263 million bushels, remarkably close to the soybean decline of 275 million. The result is that exporters have shipped nearly the same combined volume of corn and soybeans in the first 2.5 months of this marketing year as they did a year earlier.
It’s no surprise soybean exports are drastically behind last year. China did not buy a single bushel of new-crop U.S. soybeans until Oct. 30, when President Trump and China’s President Xi met in South Korea. In the weeks since, the press releases from both countries have offered drastically different interpretations of what was agreed upon. The U.S. says China will purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years. Some analysts believe the 12 million tons will be bought by the time the marketing year ends Aug. 31, 2026, not by the end of this calendar year. Others suggest the 12 million tons may actually refer to total U.S. grain purchases, not soybeans alone. With such conflicting details, you have to wonder if everyone was at the same trade party.
That confusion contributed to the market’s wild reaction on Oct. 30, when January 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.07¾, up 13 cents after an almost unheard-of 44-cent trading range. Headline trading was the driver.
Expect soybean price volatility to continue into the new year.